What Can I, We, Do?

What Can I, We, Do?

Historical Patterns of Change and the Possibility of Optimistic Agency

By: Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies and Professor, Tamkang University, Tamsui. Author of Understanding Sarkar and Prout in Power

“Human beings must not be pessimists under any circumstances. I am an incorrigible optimist because I know that optimism is the essence of life.” — (P.R. Sarkar).

Optimism is hard to maintain in many societies today, especially when the future envisioned in the 1960s – what the macrohistorian Immanuel Wallerstein calls “the social revolutions of the 60s” – of a green, gender-equitable, peaceful, and progressive society, seems to be facing a major setback.

However, for many of us who study long-term historical patterns (the longue durée, as Fernand Braudel puts it), these setbacks feel like more than the typical swings we see between centralization and decentralization, progressive and regressive movements. Instead, they seem to echo an earlier period – pre-WWII and the Dark Ages of Europe. This is not the gentle society envisioned by futurist and feminist Elise Boulding. Rather, it resembles what Elon Musk seems to celebrate – a return to fascism but with AI. Are we entering a dystopian world like The Handmaid’s Tale where fact and fiction blur and misinformation, malignant information, and disinformation thrive?

The Futures of Capitalism and Rising Contradictions

Theories from thinkers like Sarkar provide insight into these patterns. He argued that the end of the capitalist era can be observed through multiple signs: extreme exploitation, growing inequality, and the rise of the billionaire class. But more telling is how the capitalist class uses democracy to maintain their privileges. A possible sign of change is when the capitalist class no longer bothers to use the guise of democracy but puts one of their own in the highest offices. With contradictions heightened, we can imagine more and more disruption. AI is likely to not solve these challenges but heighten the current situation. AI can be used to create a new global social contract in terms of work, guaranteed work, and reduced working hours for all but more likely it will create new weapons of destruction, distraction, and coercive compliance.

I remember Johan Galtung’s 1982 speech where he boldly predicted the fall of the Soviet Union by 1990. At the time, we were incredulous, but he was right – the system had become so rigid that it had no flexibility and had to self-destruct. Similarly, Galtung later predicted that in the 2020s the U.S. might face a similar fate. The contradictions between labor and capital, patriarchy and gender equity, democracy within and empire outside, growth and nature, dominant and suppressed are unresolved. Contradictions, he argued, are part of the nature of social existence. For Sarkar, they are embedded in the ontology of reality – there are centrifugal and centripetal forces that move toward division or toward integration.

I remember well an article I wrote on Shri Sarkar’s vision of the future titled, “Sarkar’s spiritual dialects: an unconventional view of the future.” After reading the article, Shri Sarkar commented that there are no dialectics in spiritual life, only in the mundane world. Thus, in the material world, there will always be contradictions. The goal in the material world is, as Ivana Milojevic argues, to ensure that conflict is constructive leading to win-win solutions for all stakeholders. In inner life, however, one can move toward blissful states irrespective of the opposites found in the mundane.

If we look at current events, we might conclude that 2024 could be the last U.S. election. The fragile bond between citizens and the military, already strained during the January 6th insurrection, could further unravel. Revolts may spread throughout the system, and we might even witness a shudra revolution (a revolution of the working class) in the coming decade. The military could split between those who uphold the Constitution (as General Milley has stated, “We do not support king nor tyrant, but only uphold the Constitution.”) and those who support the president’s mandate who see progressive forces as a threat to American dominance.

Can There Be Evolution?

But can there be a peaceful evolution? Could we shift to platform cooperatives or peer-to-peer economics, moving away from market-based or state-controlled models? Sarkar suggested that the social cycle can move without violence, especially if the majority of people are democratic in ethos. AI could help in this transition in novel ways, including creating real-time low-friction markets matching the needs of individuals and communities and thus eliminating the middle-man. This is the shift from the invisible hand to a narrative of shared hands and, eventually as spiritual evolution continues, to the imagination of magical hands. This could be done in the energy markets as well as to some extent with direct voting once issues of disinformation, misinformation, and malignant information are resolved.

In any case, we are undeniably facing dramatic social and economic challenges ahead.

Possible Scenarios for the Future

What does the future hold? Let’s consider a few possible scenarios:

1. The Rise of Fascism

In this scenario, fascism rises throughout the Western world. While figures like Osama Bin Laden may not be the sole cause, their actions have contributed to a climate of fear, ensuring that the West sees danger everywhere. AI is weaponized, civil liberties are reduced, and patriarchy is restored. The surplus wealth that could have gone toward social innovation is diverted to military power.

2. Workers’ Revolution

The deepening contradictions in the U.S. could lead to a revolt against the tech oligarchs and the political leaders who support them. However, as we have seen historically, the revolt can often lead to new military leaders coming in to stem the chaos. The country might become more militarized, both externally and internally, as we note occurred after the French Revolution with the rise of Napoleon.

3. The Realization of the 1960s Vision

In this scenario, the green, gender-equitable, and peaceful society envisioned in the 1960s becomes reality by the 2030s. Platform cooperatives become the norm, AI is used for the common good, gender equity is achieved, and the United Nations reforms to become a more democratic, multi-house system with nature integrated into decision-making. We enter an era focused on well-being and sustainability.

4. A Spiritual Revolution and Global Governance

This goes even further. Technology and spirituality merge leading to a global governance system based on trust and cooperation. A mass spiritual awakening leads to a Star Trek-like world economy where abundance and peace prevail powered by tech, spirit, and global trust. The international system is transformed into multiple houses comprising a house of nature, nation-states, businesses, and community organizations.

What Can Each of Us Do?

Which of these futures will unfold is unclear. For progressive movements, they must keep the vision of a just society alive, expanding the tent so that everyone is included, and recognizing that while history follows macro-patterns, there is still room for individual action. Each of us can make a difference. Sarkar’s teachings remind us that the goal for each individual is to become exceptional. He wrote:

“Those people who are society’s exceptions are extraordinary people. Keeping our ideology fixed before our eyes, we must also become exceptional people. For those who are treading a new path, constructing something new, being an exception is as valuable as their very lives.”

He also said:

“You should know that you are exceptions. You, too, will do something great, something historic.”

If you’re reading this, you are an exceptional person and there are things you can do right now in this time of uncertainty, mistrust, and stress.

The Strategy for Individuals

1. 1. Spiritual Practice
      Stay calm and grounded, especially when the world around you seems chaotic.

1. 1. Focus on the Positive
      Try to find positive aspects in every situation, no matter how challenging.

1. 1. Use Prout as a Guide
      Evaluate all movements through the lens of Prout:
      

       

      • • Is the person ethical?
      • • Do they support gender equity?
      • • Do they advocate for science and technology for the greater good?
      • • Are they beyond nationalism or religion, seeking a universal perspective?
      • • Do their economic policies aim to create abundance for all?

1. 1. Understand Social Cycles and Agency
      Recognize the difference between deep historical patterns (social cycles) and the potential for individual agency. Each of us can still make a meaningful impact.

1. 1. Learn Cooperation and Connection
      Develop the skills to work with others so that instead of focusing on minor differences, we come together to steer toward a brighter future.

United with Others

Finally, there are countless individuals and movements already working toward transformation. These include movements for workers’ rights, climate action, racial justice, decolonization, new waves of feminism, and efforts within international organizations. By joining forces with these movements and sharing the core ideas of Prout, we can help create a broad, planetary movement for change.

While the challenges are immense, and at times it feels like we are pushing a boulder up a hill like Sisyphus, Sarkar reminds us that optimism is key. We must remain present, envision the future we want, and move forward with urgency—but always taking one step at a time.

References

• • Braudel, F. (1980). The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II (S. Reynolds, Trans.). Harper & Row. (Original work published 1972).

• • Boulding, E. (1977). Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an Interdependent World. Sage Publications.

• • Galtung, J. (2009). The Fall of the American Empire: And Then What? Transcend University Press.

• • Inayatullah, S. (1988). Sarkar’s Spiritual-Dialectics. Futures.

• • Milojevic, I. (2024). Conflicts on the Rise. Journal of Futures Studies.

• • Sarkar, P. R. (2002). Light Comes: EE Version 9. Ananda Marga Publications.

• • Wallerstein, I. (1974). The Modern World-System I: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century. Academic Press